‘Gas shortages likely if crisis persists’
Posted by meb at September 4th, 2008
Vahit Erdem, the head of the Turkish delegation to the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, has said that unless tensions in the Caucasus subside Russia will use its power as the main energy supplier to the European Union and Turkey to threaten them with gas shortages.
According to Erdem, Georgia’s attack at the beginning of last month against the pro-Russian breakaway region of South Ossetia, which sparked a Russian invasion, was an unwise move that has left Turkey and the EU in a difficult situation.
Ankara cooperates with Georgia in the field of energy. Turkey hopes to use gas and oil pipelines that pass through Georgia and end in Turkey to establish itself as an energy hub for Europe. It also provides Georgia with critical military assistance and training. But it has important ties with Russia, too. Russia is Turkey’s biggest trading partner, with an estimated trade volume of $38 billion this year. Turkey is a key buyer of Russian natural gas, relying on Russia for as much as 65 percent of its supply.
On the other hand the EU receives a third of its oil and 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia, and the European Commission says that dependence will rise significantly in the future. The central European post-communist countries are almost entirely dependent on Russia for gas.
“Remember last winter when Russia used its energy card against Ukraine. As a result, Austria had gas shortages. Under the circumstances, nobody could expect severe sanctions against Russia. Therefore, the crisis should be immediately ended so that Russia, the EU and Turkey can breathe a sigh of relief,” Erdem said.
Russian state-owned gas supplier Gazprom had a dispute with Ukraine in 2005 over the price of natural gas and passage to Europe. When they were unable to reach an agreement, Russia briefly cut the gas flow to Ukraine, triggering energy shortages in parts of Europe. The supply was restored three days later when a preliminary agreement was reached. A new gas dispute arose in October 2007 and culminated with the gas reduction in March this year when Gazprom cut supplies to Ukraine by a quarter, citing unpaid debts. Later they reached an agreement and the gas supply was restored, but analysts at the time pointed out that it gave the Kremlin an opportunity to highlight Europe’s dependence on Russia following the election of Dmitry Medvedev as the new Russian president.
The EU had an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss sanctions against Russian aggression but decided against sanctions and limited its response to calling the Russian invasion “unacceptable.” The EU leaders said they were ready to increase ties with Georgia through a free-trade pact, visa-free travel and reconstruction efforts in Georgia together with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The draft statement also said Russia had put its relationship with the European Union “at a crossroads” and faced the “fundamental choice” of whether or not to engage with the EU.
Indeed, as much as the EU depends on Russia for its natural gas imports, Russia’s budget, meanwhile, depends on revenues from European energy sales.
Display of muscle between Russia and US
Erdem said a power play between the United States and Russia was behind the current conflict. After the demise of the Soviet Union, NATO started to include former countries of the Eastern European bloc and Russia began to grow tired of US dominance.
“Former countries of the Soviet Union started to become NATO members in Russia’s backyard. Following that the US started a missile defense project in Poland and the Czech Republic. So the tension has increased. There was no doubt that there would be a crisis as a result,” Erdem said, adding, “Russia has finally said, ‘enough.’”
Erdem also predicted that Ukraine and Georgia would both become NATO members, especially after these recent developments.
When it comes to the question of whether or not the United States wants to put an end to the crisis, Erdem said the US does not have as much at stake as the EU and Turkey do.
The US had been planning to build up a military presence in the Black Sea, Erdem said, but it shelved the idea following Russian complaints. The recent crisis might prompt the US to rethink the idea.
Russia has denounced the US and NATO naval presence in the Black Sea, the only entrance to which is through the Turkish-controlled Bosporus and Dardanelles straits.
After the conflict between Russia and Georgia over South Ossetia, a group of Western countries requested permission to send naval ships trough the Turkish Straits to carry humanitarian aid to Georgia. Turkey, which governs international transit through the Turkish Straits under the 1936 Montreux Convention, allowed US ships USS McFaul and USCGC Dallas to transit the Turkish Straits. Also, four military ships from the Spanish, German, Polish and US navies sailed through the straits as part of a NATO exercise.
“Turkey remained within the limits of the Montreux Convention. A US ship has returned home after 21 days. Tonnage rules have been followed. But we don’t know much about the United States’ future plans in the area. It had better watch our interests as an ally,” he said.
source: Today’s Zaman
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