Disaster scenarios for Turkey
Posted by meb at October 31st, 2008
The Turkish economy is “on a dangerous path” and in urgent need of funding, according to articles in three prominent newspapers yesterday.
Citing a “newly published estimate” by Deutsche Bank, The Washington Post claimed Turkey “alone could need $90 billion” in international funding, due to its high current account deficit. Listing countries that needed support from the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, the newspaper pointed to the fact that some of those are new democracies located in strategic regions. Pakistan tops the list, according to the newspaper, while “South Africa, Poland, Romania, Baltic states and Turkey could be next.”
Reporting on the new emergency lending program by the IMF unveiled Wednesday, the Financial Times claimed Turkey may not receive the help it needs. “The IMF’s executive board … agreed to allow countries with sustainable debt and a good policy track record to borrow up to five times their ‘quota,’ or financial contribution to the IMF, with almost no conditions,” the Financial Times said.
No emergency lending:
“Independent economists said that the four emerging markets to which the U.S. Federal Reserve offered currency swap lines; Brazil, South Korea, Mexico and Singapore, would certainly qualify,” the paper said. “Other countries likely to meet the fund’s criteria included the Czech Republic, Chile and possibly Poland, while economies with large current account deficits such as South Africa and Turkey would probably not,” they said.
Meanwhile, Le Monde claimed yesterday Turkey is “running toward disaster” and has to “swallow its pride” and request IMF funding. In a news analysis, the French newspaper said: “The Turkish government is intent on finding a solution to the crisis by itself. The governing Justice and Development Party is fed up with foreign intervention and is unwilling to request help from the IMF. (Such a policy) will not relieve investors, who are already rattled.”
Reminded of the devastating 2000-2001 crisis, Le Monde said Turkish companies have total debts of $70 billion in foreign currency at the moment. If the Turkish lira continues to depreciate against the U.S. dollar and the euro, “some companies might go bankrupt,” it said, noting that a rising current account deficit, expected to top $50 billion this year, inflation and slowing growth added to the picture.
“Still the government refuses to call on the IMF. As local elections approach in March, the IMF would restrain (the government) and this would limit investments in (the Southeast),” the paper said.
source: Turkish Daily news
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