Turkish exports start 2009 poorly, down 28 percent in January
Posted by meb at February 3rd, 2009
The commonly expressed expectations that Turkish exports will start falling dramatically from more than $130 billion in 2008 to just above $100 billion this year due to worsening conditions in markets owing to the global economic crisis have started to materialize as January exports saw a severe decline of 27.9 percent over the same month a year ago.
Turkey’s exporters were able to earn $7.05 billion last month, bringing the 12-month cumulative average to $124.8 billion. The Turkish Exporters Assembly (TİM) announced the latest exports figures at a press conference in İskenderun on Monday. While speaking at the meeting, TİM President Mehmet Büyükekşi recalled rising negative expectations regarding export performance this year and said it was almost clear that “2009 will be a lost year.”
The ready-wear and apparel industry was the leading sector in January exports, with $1.2 billion in total revenue four years after losing top position to automotive manufacturers. The automotive sector was this time able to rank only second, with slightly over $1 billion in export revenues.
This was already expected since Turkish auto producers had to halt their production lines in January for two or more weeks since their main customers in Europe had stopped purchases amid falling demand.
In terms of the main sectors, agricultural produce dropped 5.25 percent in January over the same month of the previous year and enjoyed 16.02 percent of total exports. Industry was sharply down with 31.08 percent last month. Despite this fall, it had an 81.76 percent share in total exports. Mining was also affected, sliding by 30.05 percent.
He said questions such as where the crisis started and where it will end are futile, opining that the crisis is affecting everyone. Turkey is now in the middle of all this, he added. He claimed that the global crisis marks the collapse of the dominant paradigm of the last 20 years in the international economic system in which asset management had overwhelmed real economic activities such as production and trade. In the current climate, the era of high profits is now over, he said. “The period of earning a lot without really producing and only with financial speculation and artificial value increases has come to an end. However, while ending, it turned values upside down, pushed consumer confidence to the depths and triggered a contraction that caused a slowdown in all economies,” Büyükekşi commented.
Despite all these negativities, however, the TİM president said a recovery is expected in 2010.
While this negative atmosphere rules the entire world, it has become clear that insisting on some policies is “totally nonsense,” Büyükekşi said, criticizing the central bank, which has been pursuing policies to keep the lira overvalued and real interest rates high as a means of preventing a rise in inflation rates.
Turkey’s exporters have been defraying the costs of these policies every day for the last eight years, he complained. Büyükekşi also called on banks to support exporters amid the current tough conditions as a gesture of thanks to exporters for their sacrifices since Turkey’s 2001 economic crisis.
Büyükekşi asserted that the banks seem to have no confidence in the real sectors at all and are reluctant to extend loans despite TL 24 billion that is sitting idle in the banks’ coffers. “We suggest forming a $1 billion crisis guarantee fund for businesses in need,” he said and added that half of this amount may be provided by the Treasury with T-bills and half by the banks. Such a fund would help immensely in overcoming the lack of confidence in the real sector, he added.
Büyükekşi spoke about steps taken by the government in assessing opportunities presented by alternative export markets, primarily to neighboring countries. “We are in an era in which only the fastest competitors win. We have become very good dashing athletes. For example, keeping low stocks and fast deliveries have become more important under crisis conditions.
Thanks to Turkey’s geographical proximity to the European markets and thus the superiority of Turkish manufacturers in delivering the orders much faster, European customers have changed their direction from China and India to Turkey,” he said.
source: Today’s Zaman
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